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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.